[theBruiser500]

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i dont think its that he thinks the bigger set is the most likely hand for his opponent to have here. at every point in this hand i think bruiser is more likely to be ahead than behind and i suspect he would say the same thing. the possibility of the bigger set still matters a lot though because of how easy it would be in this hand for the betting to go in such a way that almost all the worse hands he wants to play against are shut out.

if aggressive play causes him to win about the same from the hands he is beating but to lose his stack vs a higher set then the possibility of the higher set should cause him to play passively even though its nowhere near his opponents most likely hand. im not saying this is exactly the situation in this hand but this thinking does come into play here.

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thank you for saying it better than i could.