Re: AA party 2/4
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Wow. Why?
Rock my world bobbo.
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wtf! svi, you rock my world.
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but this isn't a good time for pot contro
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Ok -
it breaks down like this. This is a moderate to heavy drawing flop. there are alot of possibilities for villain to take one off; the pot bet, as well, is perfect. (40 close enough to 45)
If it was rainbow you could make a clearer case for a turn check, but in this spot, hand protection + value comes to the core. 5handed turning every hand thats not top set into bluffcatchers and small pot hands is only effective if you're in a drunk LAG game where people throw barrells of money at you.
Villain claims he's "sLAA," (by the way, never good to be at a table full of people using PT acronyms, i think) so he could be taking one off with a wide range of hands.
Some hands we're not too concerned with that villain may think are stronger on the flop: KQ, KT, A9, A4, 87 pretyt unlikely any of those check call that big a bet, but KQ may think overs are live and KT may think king is live, A9 or A4 may think you'll shut down with anything that cant beat tp. fine. it would take a real fish to check call 78 there but while establishing equities against always nice considering those types of hands.
others which have considerable more equity; Qt, t8, XX [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
hands which on the flop villain may feel are even money or even ahead: Ax[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] QT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],A4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (big draw), etc.
few hands we're losing to on flop: J9, 99, 44. JJ LIKELY (although not always, 5handed i'd assume in a slightly overaggro game) makes itself known pf. J4 and 94 i dont consider.
hands which villain may think are best but really arent: AJ, Jx for that matter, underpair, taking a flier with a hand like A9 etc.
Ok, great. so we get to the turn and villain checks. this same betting rhythmn probably happens to everyone here thousands of times. (or for those who play under a thousand hands a day or week or whatnot, hundreds of times)
What we know is we raised preflop, he called, one other guy called. We potted a draw heavy board when checked to us, and villain called. ~abstrating a read, like villain always leads with sets, or always checkraises top pair, or whatnot, it's very tough to eliminate hands~ we can eliminate hands like A5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or things like that which have no business being in the hand.
But on the turn, he checks again, alot of the time the PFR has nothing. oftentimes the pfr will check here with AK or worse or maybe better, like AJ (i'd bet AJ here, too) and call a bet on the end, and with worse hands, fold to a bet on the end. so we see that dance so to speak rehearsed many times over.
so this all begs the question why is this such a clear bet, especially with the 9 turning, making a potential (although unlikely) hand like A9 winning. well, for one, it does lower the probability of seeing 99 or 9x, heh. Always fun. You pick up more outs vs 44.
But really, alot of hands which WILL call a bet, like flush draw, straight draw, or both, make them make a mistake. beauty of 5handed play is you set up opponents like this from when yo usit down (or maybe im the only one) I dont set up raising alot p f in order to win a flop bet and hopefully a river bet out of a busted QT or overplayed KJ. I bet and make them move on a draw or a weaker pair (or oddly played KK, for example) or calldown w/ 2 outs (like QJ) or w/ 8 to 15 or so.
Alot of potential hands, few of which are beating you, will call a bet, and they will be making a mistake. Rather then let them make the mistake on the river, where your potential ear nis lower, make them make the mistake now.
In addition, by checking here, hands which WOULDNT call a bet, but are live (even the KQ example) have an "equity share" of the pot. The pot is 120 or so now, why give up 10% to a 4 outer? thats 3bbs. I dont know about you, but i want whats mine. if T8 folds to a bet, its still better to bet then give up 8 outs, or roughly 20%, or 20 dollars (5 bbs).
The reason it's more a bet here then if the board was rainbow, also, is a bulk of the hands which can call a flop bet are still "drawing," whereas on a rainbow board (dry board) it's more likely you're being trapped. hand protection is less important then stack commitedness. betting pot on a drawless board then getting bounced in is likely a fold, but the first mistake was the bet.
ANYWAY, there are boards to control the pot size, and then there are situations where whether you'll be c/r or not doesnt matter, you need to worr yabout the initial bet.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, once you get c/r, it's time to reevaluate the situation, player, and odds. 5handed vs this type esp. when top pair and underpairs/overpairs have just 5% equity and 99 is now so unliekly it's very often a call. sometimes do you lose to J9 or 44? sure, but it's deifnately a profitable call especially dead money in the pot.
also, i would probably fire a 2nd barrel herre with AK, obviously folding to a c/r though. if my opponent would reraise (especially image) QQ+ i would bet/call with AJ, too. sometimes do I get trapped? sure. do i catch people with 2outers? most of the time, yes.
this was a little long, but the principle behind pot control is more often the "if this pot gets real big, i just cant see how i can win unless im playing poker with forrest gump," but this board given so many draws -> and subsequent hand protection (and opponent perhaps viewing THEIR move as hand protection) its bet bet bet.
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