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Old 09-25-2005, 12:53 PM
aflaba aflaba is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 404
Default Re: Do I call the river bet because he is bad and the pot is big?

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Hey Aflaba,

I'd call this river. If he hit a 5 he'd have raised the flop, ditto a small PP. So, he's either got a K or some junk hand that he peeled the flop with. Occassionally he will have turned or rivered a pair but a player this aggressive will bet-when-checked-to often. You'll be good 1 in 8 IMO.

Also, I bet the turn. Paired boards are scary, but very loose players often look at the 2 K's as blanks, and will peel with most anything trying to hita pair. You can tell by looking at his FoldedtoFlopBet + Folded to Turn Bet stat, plus his wentto SD to get a general indicator of how much he peels. There are 50VPIPers who only go to 30% of showdowns and fold lots of flops. If you know he is this type of player then I'd c/f the river.

Surf

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Thanks for the advice Surf! I think you're right about everything you're saying. Also I need to pay more attention to fold%-stats. I keep forgetting about them.
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