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Old 09-24-2005, 04:31 AM
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Default Re: Are blocking bets a good idea?

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But I do want to point out that when Ferguson makes references to "folding to a single bet" I believe he is referring more to a limit game.

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Exactly. Here's a mathematical way to understand the blocking bet in NL:

cEV check/call:

(pot)*(equity against villain's checking range)*(fraction of hands villain checks) + (fraction of hands villain bets)((pot + villain's bet) * (equity against villain's betting range) - (villain's bet) * (1-equity against villain's betting range))

cEV check/fold:

(pot)*(equity against villain's checking range)*(fraction of hands villain checks)

cEV bet/fold:

(pot+bet)*(equity against villain's calling range)*(fraction of hads villain calls with) + (pot)*(fraction of hands villain folds) - bet*(1-equity against calling range)*(fraction of calls) - bet * (fraction of time villain raises)

I'm sorry for not making this cleaner, but a nice way to interpret the results is that a blocking bet definitely has the potential to be profitable. In order for it to be so, you must bet an amount that would give you odds to call against your opponents range of hands, you must be pretty certain that your opponent would bet more than you if checked to, and your opponent must bluff raise very infrequently.
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