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Old 09-23-2005, 06:14 PM
fnurt fnurt is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 292
Default Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?

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I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

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fnurt's stop-and-go rule: A stop-and-go is only profitable if you have some chance he will lay down a hand that is beating you on the flop. Good luck satisfying that condition here.

If you have AK, he has AQ, and you only win half his stack when you could have had his whole stack by, at worst, giving him three outs twice, that is a mathematical disaster. So there is definitely a downside. The question is, in this situation, can you find me an upside?

It is good to reduce your variance, but people tend to overestimate the extent to which a stop-and-go reduces their variance, and underestimate the value of the extra chips they gain by just pushing preflop.
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