I calculate you have a 64.9% chance of winning.


Here is the breakdown in case anybody finds something different.


On the turn

4.9% You get the nuts (Ah or 9h)

53.7% You go ahead (no nuts) via str or flush

12.2% He gets his fullhouse or quads, then you need strfl or royal flush

29.3% the card was no help


On the river

First scenario you have won already

2nd he comes back 17.9%. I calculated 7.14 outs. It depends on what card you took the lead with to determine the # of outs, so i took the average.


3rd you have a 5% for the str or royal for the win.

4th 52.5% chance you win (you lose one out from the hearts as it could bring a full house).


I may be off by a few tenths (or maybe even fully blew this but i don't think so), but don't feel like figuring out all 1641 situations on their own.


So you are getting almost 2:1


if you want my annoying spreadsheet..lmk.

Hopefully i won't have closed excel by then


SD