[Mr. Curious]

I don't really know what I am. I play 95% live and keep accurate records, but I don't have any PT type data that really tells me if I am breaking even. The fish have padded my wins nicely, but I still suck out a lot of the time too.

For instance:

Playing last night in a NL game at a B&M. On my left is a tight, aggressive, tricky professional who I have covered. I am the SB with J8s and he is in the BB. Six of us see a flop of J98 (pot is $30), I lead out for $30 and he is my only caller. The turn is a brick, I bet $60 and he raises me to $160. He's got roughly $250 left and the pot is now $310. When I bet the flop, I had the feeling that someone had QT [we can talk about feelings in a different thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]], and when he raised I thought that his most likely holding was a slow played straight, looking for flop overcalls to trap the other players. Even with this information, I still called the $100. The river is a J, I bet $100, he pushes for the rest, I call and win the pot. He showed QT for the flopped straight.

But here's the deal. I put him on his hand and yet still called the bet without the correct implied odds to do so. Even though I scooped the pot, I did not make a profitable call on the turn.

EV:
Including implied odds, Hero is only getting $560:$100 or 5.6:1.
Hero has 4 outs, so the odds of winning are 40:4 or 10:1.
Clearly it is -EV to call the turn.

I don't really know where I am going with this post, maybe just to remind myself that short term wins mean nothing in the big picture.

Edit: Fixed the pot size on the turn.