Re: ITM decision with QQ (33\'s) as the microstack
You'll win just under 2/3 of the time against 2 random hands. So here's the math:
2/3 of the time you win, and have just under 1.5BB. 1/3 of the time you are out in 3rd. If you fold, 1/2 of the time SB will bust and you will be guaranteed 2nd, and the other half of the time you will be automatically allin against the big stack the next hand. When automatically allin, you will be out 50% of the time and the other half you will be allin vs SB the next hand with you each having 50% chance of moving on (unless big stack plays). So your chances of moving on are 50% + ~12.5%.
This is simplified but in this situation it is probably close between folding and playing. Playing might be slightly +EV.
I think it has to be +EV to play since in the first case you'll have more chips when you move on (albeit 1 BB).
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