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Old 09-21-2005, 12:46 PM
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Default Re: A7 turned bad (PP $11)

You've already committed about 60% of the your stack by this point. Folding would leave you with $650, which is 5BBs 5-handed. Unless you think the table is weak, I would rather take my chances on this hand than folding and being pressed to steal the bilnds w/ a short-stack (greater likelihood to be called, being put on a desperation raise).

Aside from just stack considerations, I think your outs are in your favor. If the villan was a good player, I might be worried about him just calling a player who raised to 25% of his stack (high pair, flopped pair w/ A or K). Given what you've said about him, tho, the hand range is broad enough to where he could be doing this with an 8 or a T (I've always found min-raises hard to read from bad players - he might be value betting, but he might also be scared of the flush!). Rough guess: 50% straight draw, 25% top pair or overpair, 15% flush DRAW (Kd or Qd) and 10% made flush. Combine these odds with the prospect of being crippled if folding and I think this is a good all-in reraise (I didn't even mention the possibility of him folding... maybe less than 1%, but I've seen stranger things).
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