[ QUOTE ]
I thought this was easy when I played it, but now I'm not sure. No reads, first hand at this table - GT+ not opened yet.
Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, Hero (poster) checks, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.
Flop: (15 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.
Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero ???
I know I don't have pot odds to call this, but in retrospect I'm wondering if I had implied odds? If the king falls, I should clean up on the river. How do I think this one out?
[/ QUOTE ]
In this case, I'm pretty sure you don't (you're just drawing to the Jack, right?).
---
On the turn, the pot is 7.5:1, when the guy bets, it's 8.5:1... you would have correct implied odds most of the time if the other guy just called, but when he bets, it's not 10.5:2 (5.25:1).
Now, if the guy in UTG calls (which he's not guaranteed or anything), then it's 11.5:2... still a long ways from your required pot odds.
There's also a chance that you will chop the pot if you hit.
Keep in mind that the pot is going to be raked, too, right? So you have to take the rake out of the pot odds at this point.
To figure out if you're going to have correct implied odds, you figure out how much action you're going to get on the river and add that figure to the current pot odds.
You don't know if this is going to be three-bet and/or capped behind you when you call the turn, either, which further dilutes your odds here...
Also, check out the positions of the BB and UTG+2...
Supposing a bunch of people get to the river, the guy that's going to likely bet the river is sitting on your direct right, meaning that you'll have to call the river, going for overcalls... this puts you in position to make a mistake when you would have gotten excessive action from utg+2 and when no one else calls...
So, you should fold this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
--Dave.