Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
I believe that getting 3-1 here is enough to make this play. If you factor in both the potential of fold equity on the turn as well as fold equity on the end if he had a hand such as Q-x. My analysis is that there is a wide range of hands he could hold here...
Some of them have fold potential with a turn reraise and follow through some of his holding are not going to fold, but if you improve then things are even better, because now he pays you off. In combination with the holdings that he folds and the holdings that don't fold but you improve against I think you can justify a turn reraise here.
His ability to mix up his style is one of his skills for certain as they are of all great players, but I struggle to see the types of hands that he would play in such an extreme manner. It seems like a really offbeat line he is taking.
I think the most significant factor here is his propensity to slow play a big hand here in a blind struggle. Since, you have no knowledge of the hands he has played with you before, but having the knowledge of his past actions against you...
ie. you calling everyone of his raises heads up and then folding to his bet on flop... I believe it decreases the likely hood of him having slowplayed preflop against you... b/c you have already shown a propensity to call his preflop raises. Therefore, I believe he is making a move here with a semibluff... the most likely semibluff being a Q-x hand.
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