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Old 09-20-2005, 04:13 PM
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Default Re: Getting into Battles Too Early On? Interesting Hand & Analysis

Sounds to me like you are going out of your way to put your opponents on hands that would justify a call from you. I think the bet-out on the flop is good, but when CO puts in that min-raise and BB is still behind me, I think I fold. You really think CO is min-raising pocket 4's or A2 against two active, unraised blinds (plus the button behind him) on this board? Plus, you're not considering BB's possible holdings on the flop; it's very likely you don't have all your outs.

I think BB likely has a flush draw or a 4. If BB holds a 4, you've got between 3-8 outs. If he's drawing to a flush, you've got 3-7 outs, fewer if he's got an A or a 6 in his hand as well. Even if you knew for sure which cards were outs for you, you're only going to hit one on the turn 10-15% of the time. I know it feels donkish to fold to a minraise, but even getting 5:1 from the pot, you don't have the odds you need to hit the turn, especially since you don't know for sure which cards are good for you when you do hit.

Not knowing which cards are outs for you means you can't count on implied odds. If a 4 comes, you aren't likely to collect any more money, even from a set, though you could lose your stack to someone holding a 6. If the A diamonds falls and you were up against A2, you aren't going to get paid off, and you might even be forced to fold to a donk raise.

Meanwhile, the reverse implied odds your opponents have against you are big. If the 4 does fall, anyone with a 6 will probably take a chunk from you. If a 5 falls, someone holding a boat could stick you.

For me, the biggest problem is that I'm out of position, I don't know where I stand, and I can only expect things to get more confusing, expensive, and dangerous on future streets. So I'd fold the flop. You tested the waters, someone told you your hand was no good, you ought to believe him.

The turn fold is a no brainer. You put out another probe bet, a guy who could very well have made a straight just went all in, with the flop aggressor still to act behind him, and you are hoping to hit a four-outer on the river? That will happen less than 10% of the time. These are the reverse implied odds that should have made you fold on the flop.

The reason for betting out the flop is to get information. You got it, now use it.
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