we could be screwed, ala the made-for-tv movie "Oil Storm." When I say major, I'm talking about Cat 4+, and right now, that's only a 25% probability. I'd say the overall probability of a direct Cat 4 or 5 hit on Houston/Galveston is just under 10% right now, but that's a pretty high risk of ruin for our nation. I can't remember any time in my life when we had such a high risk or ruin. You guys don't play
poker with bankrolls that allow a 10% risk of ruin, do you. Pray for this thing to fizzle out or head north towards NOLA again. I know that's bad to say, but we are much better off this way.
You can view the FSU model run here (just push "+1" repeatedly and it will give you a frame-by-frame showing intesity and location as it tracks across the Gulf)
FSU Superensemble Model