[Nicholasp27]

icm is already in, i thought?

there are only 3 scenarios to calculate (besides tying or losing all ur chips and going to 0): u fold, u s-n-g and he folds, u s-n-g and u win

i put those numbers in the earlier post

the hard part is getting the probability of those last 2 occurences (him folding and him calling and u winning) accurate...

a) put him on range of cards
b) probability that his hand+flop meets your criteria
c) range of hands that are >35% post-flop against his, given that his hand meets your criteria


so first let's decide on a decent range...doesn't have to be perfect, but shouldn't be too controversial