[SheridanCat]

Let's say you're playing $3/$6 Texas Hold'em.

You're at the river and the pot contains 10 big bets - there was good action preflop and on the flop. You have gotten it headsup.

You hold: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Board: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You opponent has been check/calling your bets. On the river your opponent bets out instead of checking. This doesn't look very good for you. All you have is second pair against a scary board.

Let's say you think there's a 70% chance you will lose to an Ace. And a 20% chance you will lose to a straight. You give yourself a 10% chance of winning this hand. You have to call a single big bet.

Here's a way to calculcate the EV of making the call:

(.10 * 11BB) + (.90 * -1BB) = 1.1 + ( -0.9 ) = +0.2 BBs

So, a crying call in this case is actually +EV.

Let's say your opponent is known to bluff the river if he senses weakness. We'll give you a 30% chance now:

(.30 * 11BB) + (.70 * -1BB) = 3.3 + ( -0.7 ) = +2.6 BBs

So, unless you are very sure you are beaten or the pot is small, a crying call is often proper.

I'm sure if I've screwed up the math that someone will correct it.

Regards,

T