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Old 09-20-2005, 05:47 AM
Eeegah Eeegah is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Raising 99 and flopping quads
Posts: 609
Default Re: damn marginal hands, poorly played 77

Well, if you hit your set on the flop and give yourself the standard 70-75% or so equity flopping a set tends to give, you need around 11-12 bets in the pot for this to be profitable by my math*. They're putting in 6 if they both call like you're hoping, so you'll have to hit your set and they'll have to stick around enough to pay off that much, plus rake. Could happen, but like you said it's damn marginal, especially since you never know if someone might make it 3 bets behind you, leaving you calling one or two more. A lot of things need to fall your way to make this +EV.

Of course, this is assuming you're only putting in those bets to see the flop, and not go on like you did [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

* about 12% to hit your set, so 1/(.12*.75)=11.1, 11.9 if you use 70% equity.
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