Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
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I tend to disagree...well, sort of...
While I agree that how you are actually doing over 25K hands is not much help in figuring out where you might be after 500K hands, your own subjective but honest analysis of your play in comparison with the competition should enable you to have some idea where you should end up in the long term (assuming competition remains at the same level).
In live play, you can roughly size up where you stand at a given table in about an hour. It takes longer online given the number of players you might face, lack of visual clues etc. but nevertheless, one should have a pretty good idea after playing "X" hands. I don't know what X is exactly, but IMO it's certainly not 200K or even 100K.
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I usually know where I stand at a table in a few orbits. Knowing if you are a favorite in a game is far different from knowing your exact winrate - or even calculating your winrate within 1 bb/100. GoT did some calculations and concluded that it's possible for a "true" 1.8/100 winner to win like 3+bb/100 or .5ish bb/100. Combine this with the fact that players are bound to change their play from the beginning of a meaningful stretch of hand to the end, and obsessing over your bb/100 rate is little more than an act in futility.
-James
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