[skp]

I tend to disagree...well, sort of...

While I agree that how you are actually doing over 25K hands is not much help in figuring out where you might be after 500K hands, your own subjective but honest analysis of your play in comparison with the competition should enable you to have some idea where you should end up in the long term (assuming competition remains at the same level).

In live play, you can roughly size up where you stand at a given table in about an hour. It takes longer online given the number of players you might face, lack of visual clues etc. but nevertheless, one should have a pretty good idea after playing "X" hands. I don't know what X is exactly, but IMO it's certainly not 200K or even 100K.