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Old 09-19-2005, 05:01 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: My Thoughts:

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In order I would rank them.

Ac 6c 9c Jc
Jc 2c 6s 8h
Qc Qh Ts 2s
Kh Qh Jd 3h
6h 6s 9h 9s

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JV - Close.

Jc2c6s8h, QcQhTs2s, 6h6s9h9s are slight dogs against random hands (~11 to 12, ~10 to 11, ~7 to 8).

KhQhJd3h, is the worst of the lot, about a 5 to 7 underdog against random hands,

Ac6c9cJc, is a slight favorite, by about 14 to 13 against random hands.

Thus I think the ranking, if you don’t know what cards your opponent holds, is:
Ac 6c 9c Jc
Jc 2c 6s 8h
Qc Qh Ts 2s
6h 6s 9h 9s
Kh Qh Jd 3h.

I used Wilson’s Omaha-8 simulator and ran each hand against random cards to get the above odds and rankings.

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I think everyone is underestimating Jc 2c 6s 8h. I'm pumping it 100%.
Running it one twodimes.net shows that this hand does better hot and cold against the QQT2 hand and the KQJ3 hand and is much easier to play.

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The Jc2c6s8h hand has a chance for low. I think in heads-up competition, hands that have a chance for low generally do better than hands that don’t. (Obviously some high only hands do better than some hands with low possibilities, but generally not). Thus it’s not surprising Jc2c6s8h simulates better than any of the other hands except Ac6c9cJc.

With regard to “pumping it 100%,” maybe so.

With regard to your twodimes.net simulation, I don’t know as it makes much difference how the QQT2 hand fares against the KQJ3 hand. I think we could probably come up with three hands like the roshambo game (paper, rock, scissors) where in heads-up competition, hand A beats hand B, hand B beats hand C, and hand C beats hand A. Twodimes.net is great for what it is, but I believe it is of more interest to know how these hands rank against random hands.

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Well it seems to reason that you should raise at least your top 50% of your hands as they are likely to be the best hand and you have position.

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That makes sense to me. However, these hands, except for Ac6c9cJc are not in the top 50%. (It still makes sense to raise with them, but how often? That is the question in my mind.)

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I like to raise in the 75% range because hands run very neutral in omaha and postion is so important. Most good players in both HE and O8 HU raise lots of buttons.

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No problem raising with the Ac6c9cJc hand. But there simply aren’t many flops you’ll like with any of the other hands. After the flop if your opponent bets, you’ll generally be hard pressed to call. If your opponent checks and you always bet, you’ll be likely to see a lot of check-raises.

A big question here is, how does your opponent play? Is he aware that almost any hand he holds is probably not all that much of an under-dog? Will he stoically call your raise with most hands and then generally see those hands through to the finish? Or will he mostly fold to your raise?

If you expect him to usually fold to your raise, then go ahead and raise with all these hands. Even if he’ll fold some of the time, you’re not that much of an underdog with any of these hands, and you have position.

This seems (to me) a game theory question. As a defender against your strategy of 75% pre-flop raising with garbage hands as well as good hands, if that is what you are proposing, and if I recognized that was what you were doing, you’d force me to break my heads-up hands into four groups.
• (1) 55:45 or better favorites against random hands
• (2) slight favorites against random hands
• (3) slight underdogs to random hands
• (4) 45:55 or worse underdogs to random hands

As a first approximation defense, maybe I’d try raising with categories (1) and (2), calling with category (3) and the top half of category (4) - and folding the bottom half of category (4).

You’d force me to call your good hand raises, but I think you’d take a beating on your poor hand raises. Well.... you do have position, a huge advantage in heads-up play.

At any rate, to combat my counter strategy you’d, of course, change your own strategy and raise less often with your poor hands.

I don’t play heads-up much. Mostly I have played it with a good friend I see a couple times a year, probably for several days at a time. We play heads-up pot limit or no limit, either THE, Omaha-8, or Omaha-high, probably several hours each day when we are together and we’re reasonably closely matched. Thus I do have a modicum of experience, but clearly not as much as you.

I generally have raised, when on the button, with about 50% of my hands, more with the goods ones than the bad ones, but not always with the good ones and not never with the bad ones. It’s more of a helter-skelter strategy than a well thought out one - and I’m not suggesting it to you. I was more interested in what you’d have to say.

At any rate, that’s my two cents worth.

Buzz
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