[Matt R.]

I would bet on the $0.50/$1.00 game, regardless of what value 'X' may have. I think, under most circumstances, the absolute value of the expectation, and variance, should be proportional in hold'em.

The way I think of it: When your opponents (or you) are playing poorly it is generally because they (you) are calling down without the proper odds. If they fold correctly when not getting proper odds you take the pot down 100% of the time, so there's no risk of an 'unlikely' event occuring which would increase variance. However, when you get a huge number of people in every pot calling down with anything and everything, the 'unlikely' event has a non-zero chance of occuring, so the variance must be higher. So... even though you generally want your opponents to be making these -EV plays against you, as it increases your expected profit, it also will increase your variance as there will be times when they outdraw you.