[CCx]

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Having watched the comcast tapes of both teams, i would say that the cowboys should be better than 55% to cover this spread.

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What leads you to this conclusion? What did you see in the tapes that lead you to believe that the Cowboys should be better than 55% to cover this spread?

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It's no lock or anything, just a reasonable bet that should have +EV over the long run of making such wagers.

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What makes this a reasonable/+EV bet? What do you mean when you say 'making such wagers' - are you talking about home favorite of less than a TD, home favorites in general, home favorites on MNF, etc.?