[mmcd]

Fair enough. I haven't played in this game recently. But the question remains: How often does he have an A-high that he'll call with vs. How often does he have a hand that will value bet when checked to and pay off a checkraise?

It seems to me that given the board and the action, A-high certainly isn't an automatic call for him on the river, and even if does call with it more often than not, he's not going to have an A-high that he intends on calling with anymore than 20-30% of the time here, so he only needs to have a hand that will value bet and call a checkraise more than 10-15% of the time to make checking a superior play.