Re: Q9 hand...good fold or weak play?
I think you can call the turn but I have not run any numbers yet. Preflop he doesn't raise much (although if your AF on him is over a significant number of hands than he is indeed fairly aggressive).
Once he raises preflop I'd give him a range of AA-TT, AKo/AKs, AQo/AQs, and maybe AJs/AJo if he likes raising a bit more in late position.
Once he reraises the flop I think his range his AA-QQ, TT, AQ, or AsKs-AsJs.
But on the turn he continues to bet, so we have to negate the fact that he has just a draw on the turn a bit, although 1) it is a monster draw and 2) there are a helluva lot of players who will not slow down with straight/flush combo draws.
So, for the turn.
AA - 6 (possibly 5 outs)
KK - 6 (possibly 5 outs)
QQ - 1 (0 outs)
TT - 3 (0 outs)
AsKs-AsJs - ~1 combined (around 30 outs)
(30 + 30 + 0 + 0 + 30) / 3 + 1 + 6 + 6 + 1 =
90/17 = ~5.3 outs
Obviously though MP1 often has a draw as well, further tainting your queens and nines. But getting 12.5:1 you only need about ~3.5 outs to continue so I think you should.
Call here and fold the river unimproved. If a spade hits and anyone is still betting it's an easy fold, and I assume that button will not bet an UI ace-high draw into two players on the river, so you don't need to worry about that.
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