[DMBFan23]

that is a good point. kind of two things at work here. I'll use a board of Qs 6s 2d, and JTs versus AKs as an example:

if he is capable of folding the turn but also capable of bluffing the river (AKA a solid player), then I would be more inclined to bet the JTs I think, to let him fold if thats what he wants to do, and I don't care if I get raised even on a semibluff as I can fold the river UI with no shame. with the AKs I can induce a bluff, so if I had to pick one to check it'd be that one.

against a player who will surely call the turn, either

a) he will not bluff the river: in that case, I would want to bet the AKs and check the JTs, because I can protect the AK against what is probably a fairly wide calling range on the flop, and I can set up a free showdown. I would still consider checking the AKs on boards where it's way more likely that he's hit, as I'll still get my free showdown versus this opponent often enough. but if I had to bet one it would be AK, to set up the free showdown in the cases I'm still ahead. with JTs, I can check and fold UI with absolute certainty my hand is beaten.

b) he will bluff the river sometimes. I'm less likely to bet my AK in this situation, because the free showdown aspect is gone, but I still get some protection if he's a loosey. if I have enough of a bead on him to make the right amount of UI river calls, then I like betting more. wth the JTs in this case, I really am not protecting anything, and gotta check it because I can't call the river UI, so betting the turn doesnt really get me much.

someone tell me if this is way off