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Old 09-16-2005, 02:00 PM
Marquis Marquis is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 177
Default Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...

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There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

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I don't consider "no way" emphasized through repetition to be synonymous with "on average". Perhaps he's saying much more often than not, but certainly not "on average".

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Since you don't know what your opponents hold, your equity is calculated vs. hand ranges rather than specific hands. By doing this, your equity is an average versus all possible combinations of your opponents possible hands, by definition. When Shill says "no way", he means there's no way your equity is 9% if it is calculated without knowing your opponents exact holdings, and that's the way it should be calculated.

Folding the flop is bad because it doesn't consider what all the actions mean in front of you.

SBs bet can mean a decent made hand that beats you or it can mean a made hand that you beat or it can be a draw. So you can't fold to him.

UTGs raise usually means a hand that needs protection that you almost always have beaten. You can't fold to that.

The 2 cold calls can mean that they are also drawing but may also mean they are slowplaying a big hand.

COs bet means he's an idiot and you can't fold to that.

I'd cap it and see how SB likes his hand for 3 bets, and because the cold callers will make very curious folds here all too often.

If it's two bets to me on the turn, I'll strongly consider folding.
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