[Godfather80]

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First of all there is nothing wrong with mentally assigning a probability that something has already happened. You can technically define what it means to say "I think there is a 97% chance OJ killed Nicole". Or if you want to be less precise, you can say something like "I think there is probably life on other planets." Exactly how these statements should be interpreted is a technical mathematical question. But everybody instinctively knows what I mean.

It is silly to think that the subject of whether there is a God is somehow in a different category. By which I mean that whether they admit it or nor most people are not 100% certain one way or the other. Just like any other question. Almost all people deep down think that God is either highly unlikely, somewhat unlikely, possible but not probable, likely, or highly likely. Many will not mind admitting which camp they are in.

But things change when we are talking about not just the existence of God, but rather the existence of a God who will reward, or even perhaps punish you for eternity, unless you fully believe or at least rate the existence of such a God highly likely.

In the above situation, the people who rate the chances that such a God exists anywhere from somewhat unlikely to somewhat likely, deserve a lot of empathy. Think about their situation. Non believers aren't worried and believers have their ducks in a row. But what about the others? Surely there are many of them, just like as there are many who aren't sure about lots of other issues. But in the other cases there is no torment associated with their uncertainty. Here someone who thinks the punishing God is somewhat likely has to believe he is somewhat likely to go to hell. Imagine being one of them.

Of course many of them, once they believe somewhat, will claim a full belief, Pascal Wager style, that they don't actually have. At the same time though, they fear that God, if there is one, will not be fooled. Pretty tough place to be psychologically. I wonder how many people are in that boat. Including posters on this forum.

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Here's the problem with the God who rewards or punishes based on true belief:

Can you force yourself to truly believe in anything? If you can't, then those who are given the ability to truly believe will be rewarded, and those who cannot will be punished. The point of this exercise escapes as God already knows who is a "true believer" and who isn't (at least, any conception of God who is all powerful/all knowing).

So, why would an all knowing God punish/reward people after they die for things that that God already knew would happen? Answer: the binary idea of a punishment or a reward coming when you die is as childish as a belief in Santa Claus. Our understanding of existence and God is limited, to say the least. To say that we know God's standards of judgement of human souls and we live our lives according to them is laughable. Anyone who claims to know God's decisions and motivations is a charlatan.

The God I believe in is all-powerful, all-knowing, and all-good. When tragedies happen and they upset me, it serves to remind me of how flawed my conception of existence is.