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Old 09-15-2005, 05:36 PM
bradha bradha is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 23
Default Re: Help calculating expected earn

Actually, I think the math is fairly simple - it reminds me of a math problem I had back in college. Assuming that you always bet 5% of your total bankroll and that you are betting at the standard bet 110 to win 100 rake, then: after each win new BR = BR * (1.04545) and
after each loss new BR = BR * (0.95).
After a series consisting of M wins and N losses, you have
new BR = BR * (1.04545)^M * (0.95)^N . This is true regardless of the order of the wins and losses. If over 250 trials you average exactly 56% winners, then you have M = 140 and N = 110. This is about 1.788 times your original bankroll, making $7,888 in the first year.

If you get a better rate, e.g. betting $107 to win $100, then you get new BR = BR * (1.04672895)^M * (0.95)^N, which is about 2.12 BR for M = 140 and N = 110, making $11,202 in first year.

Note: I have a lot more confidence in these numbers than I have that your system will actually yield 56% winners...

Brad
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