Re: Out-of-position gutshot 2nd-nut flush on the river
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My read on the villain is that he is tight/passive preflop but aggressive and competent on the latter streets.
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Depending on how much you trust your read on him, I feel pretty good about calling this bet. This looks like a bet he doesn't want you to call, and he's making it because he has good reason to believe you can't.
"Aggressive" - implies he'd make this bet to push you off of your obvious trips and possible non-nut flush.
"Competent" - implies he's capable of making this move holding the naked Ad. And if he does hold the nut flush, he's probably going to make a raise that you have to call crying.
Given that the pot is offering you 2:1, I think you have more than sufficient odds to make this call. There is a strong possibility he's got a naked Ace of diamonds, a lower flush, and/or Broadway, and he's assuming you can't call his bet with anything you're holding.
I probably play the River in a similar manner, expecting that I will get calls from Broadway and lower flushes a significant percentage of the time to make it profitable.
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