[threeonefour]

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Anyone have a general rule of thumb for a chop of percentage? 90% for the stakee seems WAY too high. I could be wrong. But I can't believe that would be standard.

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i am assuming under the deal (and i personally think the deal should be this way most likely) that if the stakee loses any or all of the money then the staker has 100% liability for that loss.


given that assumption, you need to do some math.

first what is his ROI for 22$ sng's. say 15%.
what is the standard deviation for playing sng's. i don't know what this is but i don't think its very player dependent, i think SD from player to player doesn't vary too much so you can just use your own SD.

using that information make a 95% (or what ever %) confidence interval of where he will be at after 500 sngs. people in the probability forum, such as brucez, can help you with that if you can't do it.

[actually the problem is a bit more complicated in that, because you do not have an unlimited bankroll so there is a chance the stakee will go broke before even hitting 500. once again, go to prob forum if you can't factor that in yourself]

once you get a confidence interval, you'll now have something to work with. the lower bound will probably be negative.

lets say your interval looks like this:

there is a 95% likelihood that the stakee will end up with an account balance between 300(a 200$ loss) and 1300(800$ win).

in this scenario it would be -ev for you to take less than a 33.33% cut. the reason way is obvious. from the staker stakers perspective, he stands to make between -200 and 200 if he takes a 33% cut. lower the percentage any further and the upper bound gets small while the lower bound stays the same