Re: this middle worth it?
This looks like a nice opportunity to me, where did you find these lines?
Rough estimate:
Bet $113 Lions PK
Bet $120 Bears +3
43% Lions win by >3 -- Lose $20 EV=-$8.60
43% Bears win -- Lose $13 EV=-$5.59
10% Lions win by 3 -- Win $100 EV=$10
4% Lions win by 1 or 2 -- Win $200 EV=$8
Net $3.81 per $233 wagered
You can tweak the percentages slightly if you want but these should be pretty close. If anything they're a little conservative, I'd actually put the Lions by 1 or 2 at 4.5-5%. You may also change the bet amounts slightly to equalize the risk, I chose these to make the math easier and it won't change the results much.
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