Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">
4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>
Villain is tight, and I don't have a really good feel for his aggressiveness but he's definitely not aggressive enough. The one hand where I got to see his cards went as follows:
He checks in the BB. Bet/Calls AKx flop, then check/calls down turn & river blanks with AJ.
In the game, I folded this, and I'm very unhappy about it. I put his UTG+1 raising range as AA-TT, AK-AQ. Just a hunch, but I don't think he's raising pre-flop with AJ, KQ or 99, so I've left them out to simplify the calculations. I also left out AA and KK.
My rule of thumb is that the probability of having two given unpaired cards vs. the probability of having a given pocket pair is 8:3. Hence, AK-AQ = 2(8) = 16. QQ-TT = 3(3) = 9. So I should not fold.
If I continue here, I should be raising this flop IMO. My read on him is that he would not 3-bet with anything less than AQ here, and most likely, AK. So I believe I should raise the flop and fold to a 3-bet.
Then, I should either bet the turn and take the free showdown or check behind on the turn and call a river bet/bet the river if checked to. I like checking behind on the turn. Given that I think it's 16:9 that I'm behind here, checking the turn thwarts a turn check-raise and also prevents him from ruining my plan for a free showdown by betting the river. So I check the turn, and try to induce a bluff from him if he's behind, and lose the least if I'm behind.
I don't like WA/WB here because I think I'm behind almost twice as often as I'm ahead. However, given the size of the pot, I should still continue so I take what I feel will lose me the least when I'm behind.