Re: Smack dab in the MIDDLE
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I think the handicap of the game is important too with significant weight but as a general rule what you state is important to consider for these kinds of wagers.
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The handicap matters. Better teams win 1-run games more often. Also, high scoring games result in 1-run decisions less often.
The total was set at 10 runs for the game - so it was expected to be relatively high scoring.
My formula for % of games decided by 1-run is the following:
.521445-.024*(Mean runs per game)-.01*(mean run differential). It's not a perfect formula since the actual graph is not linear; but it is a reasonable estimate.
Plugging in 10.5 for mean RPG (mean will be higher than the median of 10) and 0.1 for mean run differential, I get 26.77% of games decided by 1 run. I get Atlanta winning almost 43% of these contests (since they are slightly favored, they should win more than the typical 39.2% of the time that road teams do). Thus I have them winning by exactly 1 run 11.5% of the time.
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