Re: Smack dab in the MIDDLE
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I usually don't post this kind of stuff but I'm semi-bored at work.
Philly +1.5 runs -137
Atlanta -118
I'm hoping for an Atlanta one run win obviously. The math goes like so. I am assuming a typical 27% chance of a one run game on a coinflipish type of matchup.
So I make the following assumptions:
Atlanta wins by one = 13.5% of the time
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The problem is you are making the assumption that Atlanta wins half the time the game is decided by 1 run.
Atlanta is on the road, which makes them LESS likely to win games decided by 1 run. Home teams win more often by 1 run because they stop the game whenever they take the lead in the bottom of the 9th or later. Games which would turn into 2+ run victories end up being 1-run victories because of this.
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