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I didn't check the whole thing closely. However, I think you made the mistake of P(only second guy calls) = P(second guy calls given that old guy has folded). You want P(only second guy calls) = P(old guy folds)*P(second guy calls given that old guy has folded). This should help a little.

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nah i got that.. unless i misread what you said.

edit: but i did make their ranges way too tight.. way way too tight. thers a bunch of suited conneectors that could be in there .. but now i dont feel like going back and doing more, especially if i'm not even sure what i did was right.

and i don't think adding those hands would add enough FE to overcome the -EV that i 'calculated'