[Buzz]

Jeff - Are you giving your opponents any credit for knowing something about the game? If you are, do you think your opponents are going to fold to your bet on the turn? Sure, anything is possible in an Omaha-8 game, but do you really think one of your opponents here will fold to your bet on the turn?

If not, then your bet really has nothing to do with the money that is already in the pot. You’re not protecting anything by betting. You’re not increasing your chance to win the pot by betting.

I don’t know if that principle is clear to you or not. But at any rate, let’s temporarily forget about the money that is already in the pot or the money you’ll earn on the next betting round if the river card is favorable to you.

Just think about the money that’s going into the pot on this betting round. Your opponents will together put two dollars into the pot for every dollar you put into the pot.

If I’m counting correctly, 23 river cards probably get you no part of this pot. Because of the pot size already, you might be pot committed, and you might win, but you’re more likely to lose your last bet than win it if any of the 23 bricks come on the river. There are 21 cards you’d like to see on the river, but most of them are only good for the low half of the pot. There are only five cards that give you much of a chance for high.

But some of the time when you win for low, the pair of aces will eke out a win for high - so let’s give your hand much the benefit of the doubt and say 7 of your 21 good cards will scoop for you while the other 14 will win half. (Unless your opponents are idiots or gambling fools they hold cards that have a reasonable chance to win for high, low, or both).

In that case, of the fresh money going into the pot on this betting round only,
• 7/44 you win two bets
• 14/44 you win one half bet
• 23/44 you lose one bet

If you add it together, you’ll see that you stand to lose more than you stand to gain by initiating fresh money into the pot.

It would be different if your hand had a better chance of scooping. But it doesn’t. Hard to say how much it doesn’t, because we don’t know exactly what cards your opponents hold. But unless your opponents are idiots or gambling fools they hold cards that have a better chance to win than random cards.

We can’t run a simulation to see where you stand because we don’t know what cards your opponents hold and it’s unlikely they hold random cards. We rely on general experience and past performance of these particular opponents. You know how these particular opponents behave better than I do, but I know, in general, when I have two decent opponents in a pot with me, they’re not holding garbage. In other words, even if you do get a favorable card for low on the river, you very well might get tied for low - and, in addition, those two aces of yours are probably not going to win the high for you.

That’s just my opinion.

Buzz