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Old 09-14-2005, 08:15 AM
Danenania Danenania is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 13
Default Re: 150/300 hand: neverwin vs kurosh

PF is obviously kind of screwy. I guess what matters about PF is if Kurosh has been making these kind of 3-bets often or if this is a special case.

The turn is the interesting street. Here we are always either ahead or splitting unless he's got an 8 or slowplayed KK/AA pf. Would he do this?

What does betting do for us? It seems mainly that we will be getting value out of K's and flush draws. This isn't a board where Neverwin should expect Kurosh to fold to a raise, so I doubt we are getting more than 1 BB from a flush draw, UNLESS Neverwin feels it's fairly likely for Kurosh to have absolutely nothing. I also assume Neverwin will now be folding his PP's <TT as well as any other weakish hands he may have peeled the flop with, unless, again, Kurosh has been playing so aggresively that NW would feel forced to call these down.

As for checking behind, it A.) Gives Neverwin a free 2-3 out draw with his K's and PP's, B.) Makes it more likely that a PP that would have folded the turn now calls a bet on the river, and C.) Saves 2 BB's the very rare times that we are losing.

My feeling is that we give up too much value against flush draws and K's to check, and that if checking behind will induce a PP to call a bet on the river, that the same PP may very well have called down from the turn anyhow. So there might be a very small image window where checking behind is right because it always gains an extra bet from PP's and always gets missed flush draws to bet, but it would be very difficult to deduce this, so the safe play is to bet.
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