Here's a probability question: Religion A is based on the claims that those is Group A (coincidentally, the founders of Religion A) are the "chosen" people of God.

Religion B is based on the claims of that those in Group C (not the founders of Religion B) are the chosen people.

All else equal, which religion is more likely to be true?

(I know it's a silly question, and its meant to be rhetorical, but the fact that Judeo-Christian religions stem from a group with the self-proclaimed title of God's chosen people should be added to the question of the truth of their claims.)