My picks
$400 Rams/Cards over 44
$300 Ravens/Titans over 36
$200 Steelers -6
$100 Chiefs/Raiders under 53
Rams/Cards over- Featuring the Rams twice in a row feels like a death wish, but the Cardinals defense didn't show me anything and the turf in Arizona should be baked hard enough that it will feel like fake grass. Neither defense performed well against less than stellar offenses.
Ravens/Titans over- Each team had a rash of turnovers, against a known defense in Pittsburgh and what I suspect is a much stronger Colts defense. Both the Ravens and Titans left at least 6-12 points in the dirt between missed figgies and turnovers.
My sense is that a team cuts way down on their turnovers after Game 1, especially when they have an ugly game of them. Wright will still have a fumble and INT, but that should be it. Plus, the Titans defense isn't a feared one. I'm going with my intuition on this game and expect the over to squeak in.
Steelers -6- The Texans were thumped on the road by a good running team with a good defense. This week they are at home... against a good running team with a good defense. While I expect the turnovers to drop, I'm not impressed with this offense and the defense is still questionable. The Steelers offense might get the over by themselves, so 7 points shouldn't be a problem.
Chiefs/Raiders under- The Chiefs saw a rash of fumbles and a crappy performance by the Jets and still couldn't score 4 touchdowns.... at home. The Raiders and Kerry Collins looked somewhat dysfunctional and the Chiefs D seems to be stronger.
Historically these games have been high-scoring, but I'm going to ride the Chiefs' defense on this one. This may be a public line- if the over/under drops, I may have to reconsider this one.
Games considered and rejected:
<font color="purple">Eagles -13.5 vs 49ers- The Niners gave up a ton of yards and didn't get very many, against a less than stellar defense.. at home. The Niners had a big lead for over half the game, giving them some help against the Rams' passing attack. The Niners completely ground down offensively in the last quarter...
But I don't know about the Eagles yet. They haven't established the run again this year, and waste a lot of foolish play-"action" attempts. Their defense is very solid, and their offense should get off track against a weaker defense, but with the "T.O. revenge" motivation for both teams and the craziness swirling around the Eagles right now, I can't give up the two touchdowns on the road.
This uncertainty made me reject the over/under as well- too tough to tell yet what each team is bringing offensively. The Eagles did not have a stellar start of the season early on in 2004, and they don't look grade-A right now either. </font>
we'll see what CCx has to say on the subject, but I think I'm avoiding the Eagles for a while until things settle down
<font color="blue"> Falcons vs Seahawks- Crappy birds at home vs. a dome team that we're not sure how good they are, especially on the road outdoors. Plus, the -1 Hawks opening line smells something fierce.
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