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Old 09-13-2005, 06:37 PM
Fillamoore Fillamoore is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
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Default Re: AK makes TPTK: Drawing Virtually Dead?

For simplicity sakes, lets assume the chance that she has a set of 4's or 7's and loses to you having runner runner cancels out evenly with the probability that she does have some other hand. So now its just math...if she has a set we lose, if she has two pair, we may have some outs, lets see. Well, first of all, we're dead 67% of the time. We improve to two pair on turn just about 1 in every 15 tries, or 14 to 1 against roughly. So, if we somehow KNEW that she had two pair, which we dont and which she wont 67% of the time (which is a lot) its about a break even play (not counting the implied odds of course). Now the question comes, are my chances of catching a "good" card on the turn (8-Q) and then backing into higher two pair on river good enough to make this a profitable play? I dont think so and i dont think we need any more math to realize this. If the decision were closer, say 40% two pair and 60% set...then maybe. Given everything we've said here, i think the most reasonable play is call 1 sb on take one off hoping to catch a K. Fold unimproved.
(note this seems INCREDIBLY weak tite and i would only make this move if i was as certain about my read as the villian is)
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