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Old 09-13-2005, 04:58 PM
Catt Catt is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 998
Default Re: Screen name Croccoa - leaks?

I missed the fact that the Q counterfeited almost all kickers.

I would still generally call the river bet against only a thin statistical read. If you're hoping that the turn check allows him to make a second best hand or induce a bluff, I think you're generally better off calling the river lead - he folds any bluff, so you're risking 2 to win 1 and it works only when he hits enough of a hand to call the river raise but doesn't have enough of a hand to 3-bet you. A read would defintiely help, and I can think of a lot of guys where I agree that a river call would be a mistake and raising is the correct play. But even against most of those guys, a three-bet means you're toast an overwhelming portion of the time. A paired board on the flop (he calls), a check-through on the turn, and then a bet - 3-bet from most passive guys means trips, or, in some circumstances where a BD draw got there, the winning draw the vast majority of circumstances IME. So if I decidce he is an appropriate guy to raise on the river with this hand, I almost certainly decide at the same time that I have to fold to a 3-bet (partly because guys I think it appropriate to raise the river are generally passive enough that a 3-bet will be exceedingly rare). I'm not terribly good at raising and folding to 3 and this sometimes induces me to call even when I think raising is slightly more +EV. BTW this hand was from a while ago -- like a month+ or something, so I really have no memory of your play or the table (and no notes).
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