Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
Ok, so basically I misread a line on Hollywood, thinking I was betting AZ +1.5 when really I was betting AZ -1.5. Thus, I am now stuck in a -EV reverse middle, where I will lose $5200 if the Stl/Az is won by exactly one point or is tied, and will win $81 if the winning margin is 2 or greater. Given that the winning margin is exactly 1 4.3% of the time, the EV of this bet is -$148.70. If I just take the reverse of each of the bets I've just done, I am guaranteed to lose $225.67. If you were in my shoes would you take the risk of the reverse middle, or aceept the sure loss?
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