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Old 09-13-2005, 08:34 AM
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Default Re: interesting read

I agree that there is an impending oil crisis, I don't agree there is an energy crisis. Do you see the difference? In terms of energy, we have at least several hundred years of power that can be generated in power plants, from the gas, coal and uranium reserves mentioned above.

The underlying assumption of his doomsday analysis is that oil is the only source of energy to power machinery, factories, transportation, and to heat homes. He then goes on to state that because we rely on this stuff so much, we're [censored] screwed once the oil runs out!!!11!. This simply isn't true. At present it's by far the dominant energy source for these purposes, but the transition to gas, hydrogen (as in fuel cells for transportation) or electrical power is doable and will be market driven once the price of oil goes high enough.

Overall it's a very poorly done analysis that assumes nothing will be done in the next 20 years to convert to these other (plentiful) energy sources. This is ludicrous. Even a partial conversion will have a huge impact on prolonging the life of oil.

Don't get me wrong, this is a very serious issue, and much action needs to be taken. But industrial countries aren't going to go back to the stone age. At worst, they may suffer a bad recession for a period of time as the cost of converting to other forms of energy for tranportation (which I would estimate as a few trillion at least) is absorbed by the economy.
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