Thread: River of Death
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Old 09-12-2005, 11:09 PM
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Default Re: River of Death

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I don't think you have a lot to worry about. I bet you still have the best hand here. Now if it was a ace, I'd be more worried. Didn't Miller say in SSHE that people tend to play (and hold onto) ace-rag more often then king-rag?

I could be wrong, but I'd say that this is sure value bet.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Page 198:

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If the river is an overcard to your pair but does not complete a straight or a flush (e.g. you hold Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], the board on the turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and the river is the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), you should assume that you still have the best hand and bet. Except that if the overcard is an ace, you should be somewhat more concerned, as many players will automatically call to the river with ace-rag when they pair their kicker on the flop. Also, extremely poor players will call to the river with any ace, hoping just to spike that one pair.

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Page 203 (different situation, but worse):

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The K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a very scary card; it puts four to a straight and three to a flush on the board. The bettor probably drew out on the river. The caller could have a queen or small flush and be going for an overcall (or just be too timid to raise). Nevertheless, you should call. You are getting 12-to-1, so you need to win only eight percent of the time to profit. The bettor might be bluffing, or he might have improved to kings up. The caller could have made two pair or a pair (or worse -- some small stakes players make ridiculous calls). Usually, you will lose. You should win more than eight percent of the time, though, so call.

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Okay, maybe you should be worried, but dammit, this is still a necessary call. Yes, I realize that the king on the river completed a possible flush, but I still stand by my line.
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