[cwl]

i dont really like your initial river bet. i think its better to checkraise or make a super weak lead. what hands do you think are most likely for the villian and what do you think they will do vs your bet as opposed to other potential actions you could take?

my best guess of what your opponent has are:
- flush
- straight
- weak made hand like T9 or so
- nothing, he was just bluffing the flop

1) if he has a flush he may well raise but he would have bet if you checked. if he is a cautious opponent he might not even raise a weak flush because it looks a lot like you either have a flush or a hand that cant call a raise anyway after you bet.
2) straight, your bet may well freeze him up while he will most likely value bet. he may well not call your raise but people make some pretty horrible plays when you give them a chance and i think you make about as much as with your line even when he folds to the raise.
3) weak made hand. he may well check behind and you might lose some value but if he has something like T9 he is probably folding to your bet anyway. to get much of any value out of this type of hand he almost has to have backed into 2 pair or trips with something like J9 or JJ. these would call your bet, like the straight, would often bet after you check again.
4) nothing, unless he is aggro/goofy enough to raise your bet a fair amount of the time checking gives him a chance to get himself into trouble on a scary river card.

basically, it looks to me like most of the hands that will pay off your bet will be betting anyway but your bet may freeze up a decent number of good hands. if he has a straight or a flush and you check, he bets 500 or so and you go allin you will have created a great situation that capitalizes on about the most common weakness most players have which is an inablility to fold very strong hands. even if he does find a fold i think you get about as much out of most hands as your line did.

what hand calls your value bet that would not have bet itself? what hand raises your bet that would not have called a check raise?