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Old 09-12-2005, 10:43 AM
jhall23 jhall23 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 340
Default Re: Flopping top set agianst draws

Yeah you should definetly not feel uncomfortable potting the turn again when a safe card falls. By the tone of your post it sounds like you are worried that by betting you are in rough shape against two big draws. The great thing about top set as oppossed to say a flopped straight is that you pretty much always have the redraw to the full/quads working for you. A reason not to pot the turn would be if you have an super aggro player behind you that you can count on for a bet which you can then check raise big (hopefully all in). If you can't count on that then potting it is the safe way to get money in while you have great equity.

Check out these simulations I did from the flop giving one opponent a wrap and the other the nut flush draw and yourself crappy side cards. You win the hand less than 1/2 the time, but your equity is still better than the other two players if you get money in and both call then you make out the best. Obviously on the turn they are in even worse shape than this as your equity increases.

pokenum -o qd qs 2c 4d - ks kc ts 9s - ah 4h 8s 8d -- qh js 5h
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Js Qh 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 2c Qd 4d 294 44.14 372 55.86 0 0.00 0.441
Ks Ts 9s Kc 171 25.68 495 74.32 0 0.00 0.257
8s 8d Ah 4h 201 30.18 465 69.82 0 0.00 0.302

pokenum -o qd qs 2c 4d - qc kc ts 9s - ah 4h as 8d -- qh js 5h
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Js Qh 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 2c Qd 4d 264 39.64 402 60.36 0 0.00 0.396
Ts 9s Kc Qc 183 27.48 483 72.52 0 0.00 0.275
As 8d Ah 4h 219 32.88 447 67.12 0 0.00 0.329
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