[DrunkHamster]

I appreciate the analysis here, it seems well thought out and reasonable. However, I think that I prefer checking and calling by a fairly large margin.

Firstly, in my experience, people who cap a street RARELY check through the next one. If he had raised the turn, and we had called, I can easily see a donkbet being right. But seeing as we 3 bet and he still capped, I would think it is extremely unlikely for him not to bet.

Secondly, how many villains will cap a relatively weak 2 pair hand against consistent opposition? Only extremely aggressive ones IMO. Taking out a couple of these hands from the range gives us a significantly worse chance of winning. And if the opponent is extremely aggressive, what is the harm in c/c this street? I think betting is a lose lose proposition.

Also, I think we need to be more than 55% sure that we have the best hand here. Normally when I use this figure to see if a value bet is worth doing, it is after I have been the aggressor. The thing here is that we are far more likely to be raised than usual, simply because the villain capped the turn. I would like to be 65% sure I was ahead to bet out here, because I'm pretty sure I'm going to be paying 2 bets.