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  #20  
Old 09-11-2005, 04:09 PM
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Default Re: my reads got me into a dangerous situation

I cannot understand why you don't raise this flop. Your equity here is somewhere around 50 percent. Keeping the button in for one bet here isn't worth missing the opportunity to raise.

I'd just like to point out that pot would pay for pokertracker twice. You should buy it.

Nice river. If you're really 90 % sure of a FH on the turn, a raise is awful. We can safely assume 90 % of the time it will be capped, so you're putting in 2 extra bets to win 4 bets. If there's not a full house, it will probably just be called. So 10 percent of the time, you're gaining 2 bets. On the river, you improve to a straight flush ~ 4 percent of the time. Your turn raise probably nets you four extra bets on the river for those times when you make your straight flush (I'm being generous here), and then you can add back in the four BB you made on the turn with your raise.

Weighted: 10 * 2BB = 20 BB
86 * -2BB =-172BB
4 * 8BB = 32 BB
=-120/100 = -1.2 BB. So it's not horrible, but I wouldn't call it a smart move if you're that sure.
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