[Mathieu]

Aaron,

Thanks for the analysis, it was very instructive, here are my comments.

[ QUOTE ]
But then you also don't win a bet when villain has a hand which is worse than your and checks behind. In this case, I don't want him to check behind with two pair because he's afraid of the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is the Key factor #1 that you mentioned:
"How often villain will check behind with a weaker hand?"

I totally agree that this is a Key factor, but I think we disagree about how often villain might check behind with a weaker hand.

In this case, the flush is backdoor, and you and villain already indicated that you liked your hands on the turn. So I don't think villain, after capping the turn, will check very often here (say less than 5%).

This is one of the main reasons why I reccomend check calling that river. I am simply convinced that after capping the turn, villain will bet this river if checked to.

Key Factor #2 "How aggressive is villain"

[ QUOTE ]
More aggressive villains will call your river bet with fewer hands and re-raise more of them. This means you get two bets with the best hand more often than you get just one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here I agree with you 100 %. However, there is another factor which is related to this one. How good is villain? Can he understand the dialogue that is going on?

When we bet into him after he capped, we give him an extra piece of information about the strength of our hand and we allow him to use it by either just calling or raising. If villain often overplays his hands, he may not exploit this, since he will raise when he should realize that his hand does not warrant it anymore.

I think factor #2 turns out to be somewhat equivalent to "What will a raise from your opponent imply?". In other words: "How does our hand compare with the range of hands that he will raise with?