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Old 09-09-2005, 05:32 PM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,401
Default Re: Stud8 satellite FT

The problem with your thinking is that it's entirely a cash game mentality. The real prize here is one of three seats, and consequently how good a play is needs to be gauged by how likely it is to move you closer to or further from getting one of those seats. You have the chip lead with five people remaining. If everybody had the same number of chips and skill, you'd be 60% to get a seat. With your chip lead and one serious dog, you're more like 85-90% to get a seat, a number that is a complete guess but is probably pretty accurate. Blowing a lot of chips on this hand can move you back down to 60-70% range, but winning can't really increase your chances all that much. So you're in a situation where you need to win very, very often to make the play worthwhile.
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