[gharp]

Calling is OK if you know UTG will fire the last barrel with unimproved overcards. A read is very helpful -- some players will do this, some won't (I think most won't, outside of 6-max). It's a close decision.

If you're going to raise, it should be on the turn. If he just called your raise and checked the river you could check behind. If you improve you can bet again. You'll likely only get 3-bet (on the turn) by hands that are beating you (AA/KK) and you will be forced to call to chase your flush. But that's great if you improve because you can raise again on the river. When you don't improve, you can fold the river with confidence (though you've now lost an extra BB).

So, if you'll allow me to get all DavidC on you, I'll try to figure the EV of raising vs. calling:

Assume:
- UTG will always bet the river if you call
- UTG will always pay off your raise if you hit
- UTG will 3-bet you some % (X) of the time on the turn, and you'll fold the river then if you don't improve

A flush draw will come in by the river 20% of the time (~18% really, but 20% is close enough).

So:

EV(calling down) = 80%*(-2BB) + 20%(+3BB) = -1
EV(raising) = 80%*((X%*(-3BB)) + (1-X%)*(-2BB)) + 20%*((X%*(5BB) + (1-X%)*(3BB)
= <massive simplification> 9/5*(x-8/9)

so:
EV(raising) > EV(calling) ==> 9/5x - 8/5 > -1 ==> x > 1/3


This would imply that if there's more than a 33% chance that he'll 3-bet you, you should raise the turn. This seems counterintuitive to me (you want to get 3-bet!?) but I think it's true given the assumptions. Also, in the real world, he probably won't call your raise on the river every time, but you'll also sometimes improve to top pair to beat QQ or TT.

Thoughts?